欧元对美元 － 等待中期方向的确定
第二天．欧元仍然甚至没有靠近昨日所述的支撑1.2903,最低为1.2967,然后拒绝脱离1.30区域3％ 以上,仅在其上2点的价位。因此,我们在等待对于相邻位重要阻力位1.3026,1.3044和1.3035的考验,最后的价位是我们所希望看到的,因为该点位是小时图中周二的高点以来趋势线的位置。然而,我们对于我们昨天所讨论的新发现的上升通道仍然感兴趣,我们发现经过周五的急跌之后,价位在新的上升通道的底部企稳,这点是我们今天所需要关注的重点,该通道现在的底部为1.2980。而且,我们发现费氏比例61.8％位的1.3075和5月10日顶点1.3092之间的区域十分重要。因此,我们建议对所有这些区域高度关注,我们相信不管是突破或是跌破该区域都会引导今天的方向。如果跌破1.2980的支撑,今天欧元将会下跌,也可能在随后几天继续下跌,目标位在1.2888和1.2737。另一方面,阻力位为重要点位1.3035。如果突破该阻力,欧元将继续其从通道底部开始的反弹,目标位为1.3092和1.3200。
支撑：
• 1.2980: 小时图上从周二低点以来的上升趋势线。
• 1.2888: 从7月21日底部到7月27日顶部整个上升的费氏比例50％位。
• 1.2737: 众所周知的支撑阻力位,有着许多的日常顶点,包括5月12日高点,7月22日低点。
阻力：
• 1.3035: 小时图中从7月20日顶部以及2月高点开始的下降趋势线。
• 1.3092: 5月10日高点。
• 1.3200: 4月23日低点。
USDJPY – Reaching 88 exposes exhaustion
The Dollar/Yen reached the first of the “ideal” targets for this rising correction: short term 61.8% Fibonacci level at 88.01, and then retreated sharply, dropping for more than 100 pips, which could be read as an “exhaustion” in upside activity. Therefore, and even though we are negative about this pair on the medium term, we should not neglect these signs which force themselves upon us for today! Short term support is at the seriously important 86.81, and if broken, the price will resume its drop after a 3-wave correction, targeting 85.84 & 84.81. Resistance is at 88.01. A break here indicates that the odds of a continuation of the correction of the 5 waves down from 92.87 are still massive. This will target Fibonacci retracement levels for the whole drop from 92.87, with the first 2 of them at 88.78 & 89.56. It is worth mentioning that breaking wave 5 bottom 86.25 even with a few pips would strongly indicate the termination of the correction we are currently living, and will officially announce a new wave down!
Support:
• 86.81: Jul 26th & 27th lows, the bottom of the corrective channel, and an obvious hourly support. The most important short & medium term support without a shadow of a doubt.
• 85.84: Nov 30th 2009 low.
• 84.81: Nov 27th 2009 low, and the low of the last 15 years.
Resistance:
• 88.01: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 89.09.
• 88.78: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the whole drop from 92.87 (the 5 waves down).
• 89.56: Fibonacci 50% level for the whole drop from 92.87 (the 5 waves down).
GBPUSD – All eyes on 1.5685 – Part II
Although it broke the support specified in yesterday’s report 1.5560, The Pound consolidated and went back up, to settle above 1.56, in what seems to be a declaration of power! As we said before, breaking Apr 15th top 1.5520, and reaching a new top considerably above it, and a new 5-month high, are definitely positive technical signs, but the Pounds strength will be questionable today, as we approach the top of the rising channel on the hourly & daily charts, which is at 1.5685. This will be the toughest test for the Pound in these areas, much harder than 1.5520 or 1.5625. Thus, we will not take a positive stand towards this pair before breaking this level, and we do not recommend doing so. Short term support is at the Asian session low 1.5560, which was tested 3 times, and yet it survived and pushed the price up above 1.56. If broken, we could be entering a comprehensive correction for the whole rising move from 1.5122. This correction would target Fibonacci retracement levels 1.5432 & 1.5314. On the other side of the river, and as we have mentioned above, the resistance is at 1.5685. And only with a break here the Pound will be able to move forward, targeting 1.5793 & 1.5919.
Support:
• 1.5560: a very obvious support on the hourly chart, which the price failed to break yesterday.
• 1.5432: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole rise from 1.5122.
• 1.5314: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 1.5122.
Resistance:
• 1.5685: the top of the rising channel on the hourly & daily charts, and Feb 18th high.
• 1.5793: Feb 16th high.
• 1.5919: Dec 22nd low.
Munther T. Marji
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